Projected Cross-Sectional
and Longitudinal Dropout Rates
Texas Education Code Section 39.182 requires calculation of projected cross-sectional
and longitudinal dropout rates for grade levels 7 through 12 for the next
five years, assuming no state action is taken to reduce the dropout rate.
Projected dropout rates by grade level are calculated by taking the population
for each grade level and each ethnic group within grade level and incrementing
the grade level for each projected year. That is, the first step in determining
the 1995-96 rate is to represent all students who were in Grades 6-11 in
1994-95 and who progressed to the next grade level in 1995-96. The 1994-95
dropout rate is then applied to each grade level to give the projected rate
for 1995-96. This is determined for each cohort through the year 2000-01.
The dropout rates by grade and ethnicity remain constant, and a new grade-level
dropout rate is calculated. This calculation is based on the assumption
that current dropout rates will remain constant.
Table 6 shows the projected grade level (cross-sectional) and longitudinal
dropout rates for Texas. Grade level dropout rates continue to reflect higher
dropout rates in the 9th and 11th grades. The current longitudinal rate
of 10.6 percent increases slightly through 2000-01.
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